Impact of the spatial resolution of the Greenland ice sheet surface mass balance modelling using the regional climate model MAR with the aim to force an ice sheet model

In this work, we have modelled at different spatial resolutions (10, 15, 20... up to 50km) the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) surface mass balance (SMB) over the 1991-2010 period by using the regional climate model MAR (Modèle Atmosphérique Régional), validated for the GrIS at 25km resolution and forced every 6 hours by the ERA-INTERIM reanalysis. As part of the ICE2SEA project, the 25km-resolution SMB outputs of the MAR model are used as forcing fields for ice sheet models, in order to produce future projections of the GrIS contribution to sea-level rise over the next 200 years.Although the current spatial resolution of the MAR model (25km) is much higher than the general circulation models (GCM) resolution (150-300km), the ice sheet models often run at a higher resolution (typically 5-10km). Nevertheless, such higher-resolution runs of the MAR model on the same integration domain generate a significant additional computing time and are not doable until now. Moreover, conventional linear interpolations of the SMB outputs onto a higher-resolution grid, generally induce biases because ice sheet masks at different spatial resolutions do not match and the SMB is a very complex function of the spatial resolution/topography. Therefore, enhanced methods of spatial interpolation are needed for using the 25km MAR SMB outputs into the ice sheet models in the framework of the ICE2SEA project.The SMB outputs provided by the 15, 20, . . . km-resolution MAR runs are interpolated onto the 10km MAR grid and compared with the SMB outputs coming from the 10km MAR runs. Several “intelligent” SMB interpolations are tested here for improving the comparison with the 10km MAR results. This work aims to assess the lack of accuracy when interpolating SMB outputs from the MAR model onto a higher-resolution grid, compared to results of MAR running at this higher resolution. We determine also which maximal resolution is required to force with reliability ice sheet models instead of using SMB outputs coming directly from very high resolution runs, taking into account the significant additional computing time needed for such simulations

Simulated Greenland Surface Mass Balance in the GISS ModelE2 GCM: Role of the Ice Sheet Surface

The rate of growth or retreat of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets remains a highly uncertain component of future sea level change. Here we examine the simulation of Greenland ice sheet surface mass balance (GrIS SMB) in the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) ModelE2 General Circulation Model (GCM). GCMs are often limited in their ability to represent SMB compared with polarregion Regional Climate Models (RCMs). We compare ModelE2 simulated GrIS SMB for presentday (19962005) simulations with fixed ocean conditions, at a spatial resolution of 2 latitude by 2.5 longitude (~200 km), with SMB simulated by the Modle Atmosphrique Rgionale (MAR) RCM (19962005 at a 25 km resolution). ModelE2 SMB agrees well with MAR SMB on the whole, but there are distinct spatial patterns of differences and large differences in some SMB components. The impact of changes to the ModelE2 surface are tested, including a subgridscale representation of SMB with surface elevation classes. This has a minimal effect on ice sheetwide SMB, but corrects local biases. Replacing fixed surface albedo with satellitederived values and an agedependent scheme has a larger impact, increasing simulated melt by 60100%. We also find that lower surface albedo can enhance the effects of elevation classes. Reducing ModelE2 surface roughness length to values closer to MAR reduces sublimation by ~50%. Further work is required to account for meltwater refreezing in ModelE2, and to understand how differences in atmospheric processes and model resolution influence simulated SMB

Efficient communication protection of many-core systems against active attackers

Many-core system-on-chips, together with their established communication infrastructures, Networks-on-Chip (NoC), are growing in complexity, which encourages the integration of third-party components to simplify and accelerate production processes. However, this also adversely exposes the surface for attacks through the injection of hardware Trojans. This work addresses active attacks on NoCs and focuses on the integrity and availability of transmitted data. In particular, we consider the modification and/or dropping of data during transmission as active attacks that might be performed by malicious routers. To mitigate the impact of such active attacks, we propose two lightweight solutions that respect the performance constraints of NoCs. Assuming the presence of symmetric keys, these approaches combine lightweight authentication codes for integrity protection with network coding for increased efficiency and robustness. The proposed solutions prevent undetected modifications and significantly increase availability through a reliable detection of attacks. The efficiency of these solutions is investigated in different scenarios using cycle-accurate simulations and the area overhead is analyzed relative to state-of-the-art many-core system. The results demonstrate that one authentication scheme with network coding protects the integrity of data to a low residual error of 1.36% at 0.2 attack probability with an area overhead of 2.68%. For faster and more flexible evaluation, an analytical approach is developed which is validated against the cycle-accurate simulations. The analytical approach is more than 1000× faster while having a maximum estimation error of 5%. Moreover, the analytical model provides a deeper insight into the system’s behavior. For example, it reveals which factors influence the performance parameters

Modelling the effects of sand extraction, on sediment transport due to tides, on the Kwinte Bank

In recent years, the exploitation of marine aggregates is increasing. As an example, on the Belgian continental shelf, one particular sandbank (the Kwinte Bank) is exploited extensively; this has led to the creation of a 5 m deep depression along its central part. In the present contribution, the influence of these bathymetric changes, on erosion and sedimentation patterns are studied, using numerical modelling, in order to obtain an initial impression of the effect of such intense sand extraction on the stability of the sandbank. Different numerical models are utilised. Twodimensional and three-dimensional hydrodynamic models have been used to derive currents, whilst third generation wave models have been used to simulate the waves. Two different models are presented, which calculate the total load sediment transport as a function of the local currents and waves. These models have been used to investigate the erosional and depositional patterns. The use of two different sediment transport models has some advantages, since the results of sediment transport models are still subject to some important uncertainties. The hydrodynamic model results are validated using ADCP current data, confirming the good performance of the models. Likewise the wave models provide good results, comparing their results with data from a buoy. The sediment transport model results were compared to the residual transport patterns, derived from the asymmetry of dunes. The results obtained seem to be in general agreement with these observations. The numerical models are used to simulate the response of the sediment transport to extensive sand extraction from the sandbank. One ‘worst-case’ scenario and two more realistic scenarios were simulated, whilst the effect of these bathymetric changes on sediment transport was studied. The results show that the intense sand extraction does not seem to influence extensively the stability of the sandbank, but that, as a consequence, there is less erosion and deposition. The model results show, for all of the scenarios, a small amount of deposition on the top of the sandbank; this could be an indication of a regeneration mechanism. A trench, created perpendicular to the crest of the sandbank, could be slowly refilled again. The time-scale of this regeneration and the influence of storms remain uncertain. Although the main emphasis of the paper relates to tidal forcing, a brief discussion is included on the influence of wave action, on sediment transport

The 1958–2009 Greenland ice sheet surface melt and the mid-tropospheric atmospheric circulation

peer reviewedaudience: researcherIn order to assess the impact of the mid-tropospheric circulation over the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) on surface melt, as simulated by the regional climate model MAR, an automatic Circulation type classification (CTC) based on 500 hPa geopotential height from reanalyses is developed. General circulation correlates significantly with the surface melt anomalies for the summers in the period 1958–2009. The record surface melt events observed during the summers of 2007–2009 are linked to the exceptional persistence of atmospheric circulations favouring warm air advection. The CTC emphasizes that summer 500 hPa circulation patterns have changed since the beginning of the 2000s; this process is partly responsible for the recent warming observed over the GrIS

Measurement and modeling of ablation of the bottom of supraglacial lakes in western Greenland

We report measurements of ablation rates of the bottom of two supraglacial lakes and of temperatures at different depths collected during the summers of 2010 and 2011 in west Greenland. To our knowledge, this is the first time that such data sets are reported and discussed in the literature. The measured ablation rates at the bottom of the two lakes are of the order of ∼6 cm/day, versus a rate of ∼2.5–3 cm/day in the case of bare ice of surrounding areas. Though our measurements suggest the presence of a vertical temperature gradient, it is not possible to draw final conclusions as the measured gradient is smaller than the accuracy of our temperature sensors. In-situ measurements are compared with the results of a thermodynamic model forced with the outputs of a regional climate model. In general, the model is able to satisfactorily reproduce the measured quantities with RMSE of the order of 3–4 cm for the ablation and ∼1.5°C in the case of water temperature. Our results confirm that the ablation at the bottom of supraglacial lakes plays an important role on the overall lake volume with the ablation in the case of ice covered by a lake being 110–135% of that over bare ice at nearby locations. Beside ice sheet hydrological implications, melting at the bottom of a supraglacial lake might affect estimates of lake volume from spaceborne visible and near-infrared measurements

Estimating Greenland tidewater glacier retreat driven by submarine melting

This research has been supported by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Goddard Space Flight Center (postdoctoral program grant), the National Science Foundation, Office of Polar Programs (grant no. 1513396), the Netherlands Earth System Science Centre (grant no. 024.002.001), the Fonds De La Recherche Scientifique – FNRS (grant no. 2.5020.11),the Fédération Wallonie-Bruxelles (grant no. 1117545), the National Science Foundation, Division of Polar Programs (grant no. 1916566), the National Science Foundation, Office of Polar Programs (grant no. 1756272) and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (grant no. NNX17AI03G).The effect of the North Atlantic Ocean on the Greenland Ice Sheet through submarine melting of Greenland's tidewater glacier calving fronts is thought to be a key driver of widespread glacier retreat, dynamic mass loss and sea level contribution from the ice sheet. Despite its critical importance, problems of process complexity and scale hinder efforts to represent the influence of submarine melting in ice-sheet-scale models. Here we propose parameterizing tidewater glacier terminus position as a simple linear function of submarine melting, with submarine melting in turn estimated as a function of subglacial discharge and ocean temperature. The relationship is tested, calibrated and validated using datasets of terminus position, subglacial discharge and ocean temperature covering the full ice sheet and surrounding ocean from the period 1960–2018. We demonstrate a statistically significant link between multi-decadal tidewater glacier terminus position change and submarine melting and show that the proposed parameterization has predictive power when considering a population of glaciers. An illustrative 21st century projection is considered, suggesting that tidewater glaciers in Greenland will undergo little further retreat in a low-emission RCP2.6 scenario. In contrast, a high-emission RCP8.5 scenario results in a median retreat of 4.2 km, with a quarter of tidewater glaciers experiencing retreat exceeding 10 km. Our study provides a long-term and ice-sheet-wide assessment of the sensitivity of tidewater glaciers to submarine melting and proposes a practical and empirically validated means of incorporating ocean forcing into models of the Greenland ice sheet.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe

Dark ice dynamics of the south-west Greenland Ice Sheet

Runoff from the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) has increased in recent years due largely to changes in atmospheric circulation and atmospheric warming. Albedo reductions resulting from these changes have amplified surface melting. Some of the largest declines in GrIS albedo have occurred in the ablation zone of the south-west sector and are associated with the development of "dark" ice surfaces. Field observations at local scales reveal that a variety of light-absorbing impurities (LAIs) can be present on the surface, ranging from inorganic particulates to cryoconite materials and ice algae. Meanwhile, satellite observations show that the areal extent of dark ice has varied significantly between recent successive melt seasons. However, the processes that drive such large interannual variability in dark ice extent remain essentially unconstrained. At present we are therefore unable to project how the albedo of bare ice sectors of the GrIS will evolve in the future, causing uncertainty in the projected sea level contribution from the GrIS over the coming decades. Here we use MODIS satellite imagery to examine dark ice dynamics on the south-west GrIS each year from 2000 to 2016. We quantify dark ice in terms of its annual extent, duration, intensity and timing of first appearance. Not only does dark ice extent vary significantly between years but so too does its duration (from 0 to > 80 % of June-July-August, JJA), intensity and the timing of its first appearance. Comparison of dark ice dynamics with potential meteorological drivers from the regional climate model MAR reveals that the JJA sensible heat flux, the number of positive minimum-air-temperature days and the timing of bare ice appearance are significant interannual synoptic controls. We use these findings to identify the surface processes which are most likely to explain recent dark ice dynamics. We suggest that whilst the spatial distribution of dark ice is best explained by outcropping of particulates from ablating ice, these particulates alone do not drive dark ice dynamics. Instead, they may enable the growth of pigmented ice algal assemblages which cause visible surface darkening, but only when the climatological prerequisites of liquid meltwater presence and sufficient photosynthetically active radiation fluxes are met. Further field studies are required to fully constrain the processes by which ice algae growth proceeds and the apparent dependency of algae growth on melt-out particulates